Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

What are the chances of the unrest spreading into China?

One hears of sporadic unrest through China, I take the economy hasn’t yet faltered so people aren’t too disgruntled.

I take it this qualifies as “Interesting Times”

Zero. The Chinese public sentiment is on the government side.

In fact, what I have sensed is that there is certain fraction of the general public wants the government to take more drastic measures, and quickly.

0 to minimal chance. the brainwashing happening in mainland china makes those protesters into terrorists supported by foreign governments. that’s the level where china is at right now.

I think in the mind of the Chinese mainlanders, HK was always supposed to be a part of China proper, just like Taiwan. These riots are seen as childish at best, and at worst, a threat to the LEGITIMATE rule of the central Chinese government. Again, this is their view on things. If that's what you think, then of course you'd be for a harsher response, they're attacking what you think is right and true.

Of course, in the West, we don't admit the CCP as truly rightful rulers of China for many reasons, but mainly because they're not democratically elected. There is no refusing, there is no dissent. The Chinese aren't dumb, they see that too, but they see it as the price you pay for orderliness. And maybe it is? This, coincidentally, is also used to justify censorship: it is the price you pay for running a large society effectively. And maybe it is. We see censorship on our side of the world too, in the name of combatting fake news, child pornography and terrorism.... Exactly how you justify it in China.

The CCP's largest issues all stem from not truly being of the people and thus lacking that pressure valve: unchecked corruption, and an inability to uphold ethical standards. We've seen this with authoritarian regimes time and time again, with the Nazis, with the Soviet, and now with the CCP.

This was a rant about nothing, thanks for reading.

Most people on the mainland are probably unware of what is going on in HK.

The most liberal west-loving people I know in China are claiming that these are terrorist acts being pushed by America.

The chances of mainlanders being inspired by this is zero. Most seem to want to see the protesters disappear, and I don’t mean just going home and giving up.

People seem to love hyping up the idea that the young people in China will “wake up” and want democracy, free speech, etc. It’s going in the opposite direction and fast.

As others said, zero. I check out CCTV reporting about this every couple days, and they deliberately show only scenes where police gets attacked by the protesters (called terrorists). Or sometimes against uninvolved people accidentally ending up in the protests. Also defacement of government symbols helped turn the sentiment against the protesters. Otoh that helps see how most western media is also biased in their reporting (what footage they show) but the Chinese definitely take the cake here.

Low. There are also reports of APCs massing on the China-HK border. Allowing unrest to spread is the one thing China has become extremely good at preventing.

Thanks to the internet censorship, it is hard for either side to get any accurate information from the other, not to mention fewer people do that deliberately.

Greater than zero (never trust the heavily massaged public sentiment - and the VPN usage hints at a "silent but substantial" objecting miniority) but HK and Mainland have a history of negative sentiments that goes back to while the British still held it.

Why would unrest spread to China?

Zero. You can even hear the majority complaining about the protest from time to time.

This is pro-China propaganda at it's best, they'll milk it for years. It's hilarious how naive the West is about these matters.

> What are the chances of the unrest spreading into China?

There are hundreds of small riots happening all around China nearly every month.

I don't think this will make a difference, unless it happens in numbers comparable to number you see in HK.

Paradoxically, Xi's rule saw less riots than during Hu's term, when "something serious" was going on almost monthly.

Those protests are all due to environmental issues and against the local government.

Each time the national government has stepped in and supported the protestors.

not sure why you're being down voted these seem reasonable statements. I do wonder how many agent provocateur's there are on all these forums. We've lost a lot of truth lately I feel.

Applications are open for YC Winter 2020

Guidelines | FAQ | Support | API | Security | Lists | Bookmarklet | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact