What's the average population size of alien planets when you are one in 7 billion having this question.
I don't quite get it together but it had 2 interesting problems:
- It allows for a prediction with a simple size of just 1 which differed from said sample
- it's debatable if we should calculate with 7 billion humans or one globalized "intelligent" race
If anyone could point me to a source to this I'd be happy :)
also related: the german tank problem https://www.eadan.net/blog/german-tank-problem/
> In other words, selecting which part of the data to analyze based on information regarding where streaks are located within the data, restricts your choice, and changes the odds.
I'm not particularly great at statistics, so I fall trap to a lot of these kinds of misconceptions. I appreciate articles like this getting shared, it's incredibly interesting.