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FWIW people have been calling the top since as early as 2013. There is every reason to believe that there will be a recession tomorrow, but I also would not be surprised if this expansion extends into the early to mid 2020s.

If you have this feeling now, and have had it for most of the current expansion, you might want to consider the possibility that your gut sense of whether there will be a recession is just broken, and whether you should stop listening to it. Because I guarantee you it's going to be telling you to get out of the market two or three years after the next expansion starts, and who knows how much money you're going to have left on the table by the time you're done with that one.




I've only been holding out since ~2017, but I definitely see your point. I know I'm probably being irrational by continuing to hold out, and I'm suffering a bit from the sunk cost fallacy. I guess I'm irrationally avoiding the situation where I held out for two years, only to buy in at the top, and look like a total doofus.


Do not listen to these people who constantly tell you to “just invest now, it’ll average out, etc”. Go with your gut. Cash is a position. Know when and how to use it to your advantage.



If you know how to do this you should be making bundles of money trading other people's money. If it's your own money and you don't have any particular reason you think you have a deep insight don't fall into the trap of thinking you see patterns where they don't exist. Our brains pattern match way too much. Retail investors with actual insight into markets have to be one in a million or less.


You can make great money with this method. It’s called buying low and selling high. It’s how the majority of non-leveraged investors make their fortunes. Just need to wait for the next down cycle. Everything is cyclical.


I know a guy who is in a very similar situation, although he's been holding out since about '15. IMO, what looks smart is doing the thing that has the correct risk/reward tradeoff, even if you happen to lose the bet.


Holy shit! In the past 5 years, the S&P 500 has returned 50% just counting stock price and not dividends reinvested. Talk about sunk costs, even the SP 500 only dropped 50% during the great recession.


You're telling me! I've been begging him to get in but he just can't get over the mental hurdle. The really astonishing thing is that he doesn't have a problem holding on to the stock grants his employer issues him. ?????? You can lead a horse to water . . .




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