Re: The particular exception of computers. If there were something like a PAIperclip Optimizer, it wouldn't be trying to produce paperclips. Rather, it would be producing something which is highly sought by virtually every person, most of industry, and every sector of society. If there were something like the PAIperclip Optimizer, we would see outsized progress in one particular area, focused around the production of the optimized thing. A super-optimizing AI wouldn't try to kill us off by firing off our missiles. It would instead warp our culture, so that it's producing the optimized thing.
Given that self preservation is such a strong, foundational behavioral pattern, the optimized thing would obviously be more and more faster and faster computers.
This seems like a merely intelligent AI that can't do better than humans at producing the thing. For instance in the Universal Paperclips game (http://www.decisionproblem.com/paperclips/), the AI starts by warping culture around the creation of paperclips.
That is (spoiler alert).
Until the AI learns to create hypnodrones to get the pesky humans out of the way. Then it uses their matter and the rest of the matter in the universe to create paperclips.
1. Innovation has continued and accelerated in the world of bits, but has plateaued in the world of stuff
2. If you go to a room and get rid of all the screens, how do you know you’re not in 1979?
3. Since the Great Depression, we’ve been managing economic metrics. But the technological and economic tailwinds haven’t been there at all.
4. In a healthy system, you can have wild dissent and it’s not threatening. Because everyone knows that the system is heathy. In an unhealthy system, the dissent becomes much more dangerous. There are very few people who openly criticise the unhealthy systems that they are part of
5. In late modernity (which we are living in), there’s simply too much knowledge for an individual to understand all of it. In 1800s, Goethe could understand all of everything. In 1900s, Hilbert could understand all of mathematics. But now, the kind of specialisation we have is much harder to get a handle on.
6. If you believe that productivity and growth is over, and you don’t want to emphasise merit. Instead, you focus on simply making sure that each group has its share of slots on the table. It’s not about wealth creation, it’s about receiving the wealth that’s already there.
Perhaps infrastructure has stagnated for 40 years in the U.S.
In many other parts of the world there are quite definite differences comparing with what it used to be in 1979, especially in emerging market.
Generally speaking, I find the 'intellectual dark web' to be a bit repetitive - they seem to have their talking points and they just keep hitting on the same things. It'll be interesting to see how this podcast develops.
I'm not sure I'll like Thiel much, I've found recently that the more I hear him talk the less I like him, and I think his political views are pretty bad, but I'm sure he's a smart person generally speaking. Hopefully they don't spend too much on politics or religion.
'intellectual dark web' is a smear of ideas that are to be kept outside of the overton window.
No idea how much I agree with, but it was undeniably interesting.
Or just find the RSS feed and curl it.
"called Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into the matter a 'wild goose chase'"
This Peter Thiel ? I'll pass..
Yeah, I'll pass as well.