Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

>10,000 hands in an interesting number. If you search the poker forums, you'll see this is the number you'll see people throw out there for how many hands you need to see before you can analyze your play. You then make adjustments and see another 10,000 hands before you can assess those changes.

If you read the paper/facebook post[0] (no idea why this worse article is the link here) - you'll see they address this.

>Although poker is a game of skill, there is an extremely large luck component as well. It is common for top professionals to lose money even over the course of 10,000 hands of poker simply because of bad luck. To reduce the role of luck, we used a version of the AIVAT variance reduction algorithm, which applies a baseline estimate of the value of each situation to reduce variance while still keeping the samples unbiased. For example, if the bot is dealt a really strong hand, AIVAT will subtract a baseline value from its winnings to counter the good luck. This adjustment allowed us to achieve statistically significant results with roughly 10x fewer hands than would normally be needed.

0. https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-...

Guidelines | FAQ | Support | API | Security | Lists | Bookmarklet | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact