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The issue is that you don't know exactly the probability of your opponent folding.

This is psychology.

The probability of the opponent folding doesn't matter. The goal of bluffing in modern games is so that optimal players are indifferent in their decision (no matter how they play, you can't lose money). And because this is a zero sum game, if you can't lose money then you win if the opponent makes mistake.

You only need to know the probability of the opponent folding so that you can deviate from the theoretical optimal strategy to win even more money if they are a biased player

I'll have to go back and watch Data playing poker on Star Trek NG -- what do sci fi writers think of this.

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