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We have a decent idea what small players like Pakistan/NK have got, I think, in terms of number & sophistication.

While I'm very doubtful that the US or Russian stockpile contains a > 100MT warhead, I agree that if there was any serious reason to produce one, this need not take very long, nor attract much attention.

Large bombs are in the ballpark of earthquakes, for energy released. But how much of this would be contained in the water, not just blown into space, or something? Presumably someone has done the calculations...

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