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One of the points of Scrum is that you don't estimate hours at all. You estimate intentionally vague and abstract "story points". You don't need to know what that is in hours, just try to make sure that two stories of roughly equal complexity have roughly equal points. Run a few sprints, check what velocity you actually end up on, and you've got the averages you need to give a slightly more long term planning.

But without the feedback of actually having done the work, any estimate is bound to be wrong.




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