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China’s economy is very dependent on foreign markets, both for exports of its manufactured goods and for acquiring the commodities needed for that. Their currency peg further limits their options. If they go too low commodities become unaffordable and if they go too high exports lose competitiveness.

And some manufacturing jobs come back to the U.S.

Not likely. When manufacturing comes back to the US it's because the company calculated the cost of a US-based automated factory was less than the shipping + tariffs on the foreign-produced goods. If manual labor jobs leave China, they will go to other low-cost countries like Malaysia, Vietnam, etc. or be lost forever. Even producing things in Mexico can cut your labor cost in half in comparison to producing here.

An automated factory in the US is more US jobs than a factory in China. It is a net positive even though you don't get all the jobs back.

It could mean more US jobs, but it could also mean fewer if you look more broadly.

Say US companies are having PCBs manufactured in China because that's currently the cheapest option. You cut off that option and US companies are forced use more expensive domestic options. The effects of that can ripple through US companies that directly or indirectly depend on PCBs, and the jobs lost throughout the economy could be greater than the jobs gained from the new automated factories.

The gains by US producers will be outweighed by losses to US consumers.


In addition, much of the gain will accrue to a smaller number of business owners, while the losses will be spread across the wider public.

Inevitably, those in control will manipulate the situation to their own advantage.

More importantly it's a strategic positive. Productive capacity is defense capacity. Buying gewgaws, knickknacks, and flipflops from a strategic competitor is one thing, buying defense technology is another, and it's not the path to security.

Exactly. They wouldn’t go from China to the US. They’d go from China to somewhere closer to the economic factors of China - India, Brazil, etc

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