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From OP:

"If you want to know the value of a security, use the price of another security that's as similar to it as possible. All the rest is modelling. Go and build."


"Price is what you pay; value is what you get."[a]


[a] https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett

Time horizons are important. Buffett's capital comes from insurance float. That's very long-term capital. He can afford to buy an asset and let its cash flows pay him back.

If you're balancing an options portfolio, on the other hand, shorter time horizons matter. If the stock pays back in 10 years but crashes in one, the ten years don't matter for the holder of a 12-month call option. Thus finding symmetries becomes more relevant than fundamental analysis.

Yes. Couldn't agree more.

Arguably, one could call the long-horizon, volatility-ignoring approach "investing" and the short-horizon, volatility-sensitive approach "trading."

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