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>It's far from obvious to me that you could tell apart the effects of different efforts - especially as you don't know who each voter voted for.

Companies that do those short of campaigns stagger them at different times, do polls before and after, test a new method in this or that area or demographic and check again and so on through election year.

It's not just "apply a bunch of methods at once" -> "check the final election result" as the only feedback.

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