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I like Preston- It's always good to have thoughtful, polite crypto skeptics around. However, I think by any objective measure his predictions haven't proven to be very accurate.

For instance, he congratulates himself on predicting a Bitcoin price collapse in his September 2017 essay, which is a time at which the price was only $3000, far less than half of what it is now. (His thoughts on the ICO madness fared better)

That said, he is right that the Tether/Bitfinex situation is relevant to the current price runup, though the fact that tether has only about 2% the total market cap of Bitcoin needs to be also taken into account.




It’s the volume not market cap that matters. Market cap is a bullshit metric for cryptocurrencies. If I issue a million tokens and sell you one for a dollar, I’ve created a million dollar coin instantly in terms of market cap.


I can see your argument... But would you agree that if the tether folks tomorrow say "Sorry, we're bankrupt, your tethers are worthless now LOLZ" that a max of 2.8 billion dollars would be lost by tether holders, i.e. equivalent to the market cap of tether? (I mean, you can go down the road of arguing that losses could be greater than that due exotic leverage and/or derivatives trading techniques that enter into this and allow for greater losses, but that seems a bit specious)


Depends how much of the volume of bitcoin trading is done on tether exchanges and how real that volume is.




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