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> Historically, that’s not uncommon.

Really? I was under the impression that closing below your IPO price is quite rare indeed. Do you have other data?

Edit: actually, just saw a NYTimes article with info that it is indeed rare:

Since 2000, only 18 companies valued at more than $1 billion and listing on American exchanges have opened below their I.P.O. price. On average, tech stocks have jumped — or “popped,” in Wall Street parlance — 21 percent on their first day of trading over the past 24 years, according to Dealogic.




I would call 18 common, relative to the number of recent IPO’s over 1 Billion dollars. It’s definitely not the majority, but it’s common enough to make leverage extremely risky.


You have an odd definition of "common". That's 18 over a total of nearly 20 years. The billion threshold is for total company valuation, which at least recently is most companies listed, not amount raised.


As of today, 15 of the last 50 IPO’s where down, with one exactly breaking even. I think most people would call 30% common.

2008 has 31 Total IPO’s, restrict that to 1+ billion and you are not talking about a huge list. Restrict that to an unusual few years and it’s easy for an abnormal but meaningless pattern to show up. But, we have no need to make such assumptions.

PS: Facebook is something of an oddity, opening day has technical issues which ended up inflating the price.




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