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Not a lot really. The core parts aren't actually docker (containerd and runc do all the work and are not docker owned), so it's more a problem of how fast we can get tooling to replace the wrapper around them (that's docker, so the bit that would be more of an issue). Local development would be hit the hardest, though I'm sure things would carry on as-is for quite a while since the parts of docker that are mainly used for building and pushing containers is open source.

Kubernetes already doesn't need docker to run, so migrating wouldn't be a nightmare. There are other image repositories everyone can use for the base images.

CoreOS did a good thing by pushing for the OCI as it's made sure this exact situation isn't a disaster.

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