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> [we will reach] no-fail image based object detection level of advancement [...] my most optimistic wild guess is 10-20 years

You mean using cameras without LIDARs right? Presumably Waymo itself (cameras + LIDARs) is roughly at that level of advancement today.

In 10-20 years LIDARs should improve dramatically as well, in both price and performance. So I'm guessing cars will continue to rely on both technologies even when cameras become viable by themselves.

BTW, did you enjoy working at Waymo? Would you recommend the perception group as an employer?




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