Tesla's head of AI is Andrej Karpathy, who many in this community hold in high esteem. I know this is "argument by authority", but we're working with a black box here, so it will have to do. Do you really think he is wasting his best years on a project that anyone in the field can "guarantee" will never happen? Or could it be that he knows something you don't?
By the way, it seems you also don't know that they hold most FSD revenue in reserve on their financials, it's not being spent. So if they need to return it, they can.
Regarding the TPU chip that is 100x faster than NVidia's chip, I also take that with a grain of salt. Note that 3rd generation Google TPUs are on par with latest NVidia GPUs in terms of performance according to Google. If Tesla has made a chip that is 100x faster, they should spin it off as a separate company that could be valuable as much as 2x Tesla's market cap.
I don't think they've claimed that the FSD computer (hw3) is 100x faster than "the latest NVidia GPUs". He's said that it's about an order of magnitude in the number of video images the current Nvidia hardware in a Tesla can process (that is, from 150-200fps to ~2000fps) without needing to scale down any frames.
I think he may have said in one live interview it would be "2000%" better, but since he said previously it would do 2000 frames/s, that may have just been a mistake of saying "percent" instead of "frames".
About the stuff that's based on Elon's assertions:
First, yes, he is often wrong on timelines. Nobody doubts that. By the way, for other car companies (even Waymo!) who claim they'll have X milestone by Y date, everyone is understanding, since timelines slip. For Tesla, apparently it's a capital crime to say "I think we'll have it by then" and not have it. But your original points were not about timelines.
As for the miles they have registered with the DMV, Tesla's self-driving programme does not follow the same path as others. They are progressing from level 2 upwards, and deploying improvements to their fleet of cars in production. Other companies are working with tiny fleets and aiming directly at level 4+. So basically, you're looking in the wrong place. But even so, Elon's latest prediction is that they'll have "feature completeness" by end of year, and then they'll start working on regulatory approval. So I assume that's when you'll start seeing miles there, and you will very likely see lots of them, all at once.
Since when is middle management with an org size of 80 an "executive position"?
> His department is building something that is actually used in cars today.
So do the departments at Cruise, Waymo, BMW, and even universities. Karpathy isn't special -- and neither is Tesla Autopilot's progress.
>By the way, it seems you also don't know that they hold most FSD revenue in reserve on their financials, it's not being spent. So if they need to return it, they can.
Please point to the line and note in the financials where this is done, because I'm quite sure you're mistaken. Tesla hardly has any warranty reserves, let alone FSD refunds.