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Ask HN: I am 33 yrs young, will we form a colony in Mars within my lifetime?
9 points by jackallis 8 days ago | hide | past | web | favorite | 11 comments
boy, would i love to see this happen before i die.

Follow what they are up to at the stations in Antarctica. It's boring and depressing. Mars won't be any different. I think a lot of talk about Mars is marketing to sell some other product (books/shows/movies/people etc).

Perhaps it's boring and depressing to most, I've always really liked the feeling of being in a desolate place, it's a kind if quiet you can't get anywhere else (that being said requirement 1 for me going anywhere is a good internet connection). And there is an unarguable novelty to being on another planet, in addition to the security idea, it's sort of a fail safe if we end up nuking each other into oblivion

I think you're right about it being like Antarctica and being exploited by the media. We shouldn't use that as an excuse not to propel the technology forward in order to get there though. The movies also help kids get excited about pursuing a STEM field and the possibilities for the human race.

The first airplane flight was in 1903, and commercial air travel was common by the 1950s. The first person in space was 1961 and with SpaceX we might be on the verge of commercial space travel, or more likely automated supply missions to Mars. We do need a major advancement in propulsion technology to make roundtrips to Mars, so people aren't stranded there.

The economic (and military) rationale for developing commercial air travel was somewhat stronger than that for colonising Mars though, as well as there being fewer logistical hurdles to overcome.

If you mean a colony in that it is a self-sustaining outpost then definitely not. If you mean a base that is constantly occupied like the international space station then it is unlikely but possible. If you mean will a person get to Mars then I would say that is very likely.

Makes me sad to think that this dream legacy started since 1930 when rockets where made by amateur (source: Carl Sagan Cosmos). And then still they dreamt to visit Mars or the moon. Then Carl Sagan also wished to see people on Mars but has seen the moonlanding. He also influenced Hawking who also wanted to see human on sustainable interplanetary.

Possible in the next 50 years, but highly unlikely. We might get a few people to land, and maybe return if we're lucky, but that's about it.

Nobody currently has the spare cash to outlay the horrific expenses. (The US has 24 trillion in debts, China is still in the growth phase and unlikely to have the spare readies for a century or so. Nobody else can come close.)

Perhaps watch this video for a nice overview of what that might look like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqKGREZs6-w

I think you'll probably see baby steps towards it but there are a lot of problems to overcome.

More comprehensive space station and lunar base are more likely. That said von Braun had a plan for a 250 foot rotating space station in the 50s so don't cross your fingers yet...

It depends on how long you live.

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