Lowest estimate of human brain’s compute capacity is 30 TFLOPs. More reasonable estimate is 1 PFLOPS. Achieving this level of compute would cost few thousand dollars per hour. Human costs $7-$500 per hour. On the top, energy consumption bills would be outrageous. Because of slowed down Moore’s law the price goes down by 10X about 15yrs. I also think it’s fair to assume that human brain sculpted over million year of evolution with extreme frugality is fairly optimal as far as hardware requirements are concerned. So I tend to think “affordable AGI” might be around 45 years away.
