Apparently 35k is already the average car price in the US, so the model 3 is already a mass-market car. The gas and other operating savings are also significant to further bring that value down so I think we're already comfortably past the point of no return. It's all ramp up from now on. If I was in the shoes of a traditional car maker I'd be very worried. Tesla may still fail but EVs will take over soon either way.
Why? They'll just make EVs. They already produce multiple drivetrains. An EV drivetrain is just another one. Countries and cities are legislating against ICE cars so all car manufacturers need produce battery electric or hydrogen fuel-cell cars.
As they transition to EVs they'll still sell ICE cars which are cheaper to buy, faster to fuel, and have better range.
I wish they would, but they're lagging way behind. Developing a good EV drivetrain, and particularly a good battery is not trivial and so far no one is matching Tesla. Hyundai has some reasonable models now and Renault/Nissan have had some basic models out for a while. Nothing compares to Tesla yet so if I was Mercedes/BMW/Audi/etc I'd be very worried right now.
Volkswagen is starting their push into EVs now. The Porsche Taycan uses 350 kW chargers to charge faster than Teslas. I'm sure 350 kW chargers are on Tesla's roadmap but Volkswagen got there first:
Volkswagen's MEB EV platform will be used across four VW brands (VW, Audi, Skoda, SEAT) to deliver 27 different EV models by 2022:
How many models will Tesla have available by 2022? VW is also looking to license the MEB platform to other manufacturers (like Ford):
I think Volkswagen will be the EV leader in a few years. It'll be interesting to see if this helps them get ahead of Toyota to become the world's biggest car company.
No, they're ahead because they'll be delivering more options at a larger scale.
When will Teslas take a 350 kW charge? Porsche is doing that this year.
How many models will Tesla have available in 2022?
But the biggest advantage is not that. It's having electrical motors that are cheaper, lighter and more powerful (Munro has a great slide on that). It's having cells that are cheaper to build and better integrated (Munro was apparently blown away). It's having power electronics that are better. That's the kind of advantage that makes for higher margins and better products. I'd love it for others to surpass it, but it hasn't happened yet.
I'm not particularly in favor of Tesla, just EVs for several reasons. I do hope all the traditional manufacturers come out with great EVs. They just haven't yet.
350 kW chargers are already rolling out on the Ionity, Fastned, and Electrify America networks. They use the CCS standard. They already work with cars on the road:
Why is Tesla so far behind?
Volkswagen knows. They'll sell you a Porsche Taycan. Then they'll sell you an Audi e-tron GT:
And then they'll sell you a Porsche Macan:
Better planning, bigger scale.
Meanwhile Tesla is still losing money. They were down $1 billion in 2018:
When will Tesla's technology be profitable? The closure of the retail stores doesn't inspire confidence.
No it's not. Right now, there just is no EV "family car".
I would love to buy a model 3, but with that ridiculous trunk there's just no way I could fit my kids stuff in there.
All the EVs currently being built (or announced) are just commuter cars. Sedans and small SUVs are great for driving to work on your own, but I think it'll be really awkward to go on a skiing trip with a family of 4 in a Model 3 or in a Nissan Leaf or whatever.
(technically there's the Nissan eNV, but that car is hideous)
Maybe Volkswagen will be the company that finally builds a practical EV...
And one for work: https://jalopnik.com/the-volkswagen-i-d-buzz-cargo-is-the-fu...
And a dune buggy for the weekends: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1121245_volkswagen-conf...
The system scales from small compact cars like the Audi A1 or the VW Polo to big family cars like the VW Touran or Skoda Superb or even SUVs like Skoda Kodiaq.
If their strategy works out, and they can introduce a system like that for EVs, they can start introducing multiple new models per year.
It isn't a bunch of Golfs. It's hatchbacks, crossovers, and buses built on the same modular platform:
The MEB platform can be adapted to hatchbacks, sedans, crossovers, vans, and even dune buggies. That's what will give Volkswagen economies of scale Tesla doesn't have.
It isn't just a promise. It's the mass market arm of their EV strategy.
Yes, an Volkswagen advantage has.
> that number of models was an advantage that VW had
It is. Their MEB modular platform allows them to target every segment across multiple brands while maintaining economies of scale in manufacturing. They're good at it:
As I say, better planning and bigger scale.
TCO information is probably harder to estimate but if it were done in a standardized way Tesla would probably suffer given how unreliable their cars are and all the maintenance horror stories of cars being in the shop for months and months due to backlogs and backordered parts... Consumer Reports and other independent agencies do try to estimate some of this I think.
...and the price just dropped, so you can expect even more competitiveness than the data from 2H2018.
* When I say sales, I mean the time when Telsa "won" the customer, not when contracts were signed or they received full payment.
I wonder how long it'll take for the production/sales to reach "steady state", ie when the pre-order bubble has been absorbed.
I can't think of a company that does well across market segments from 20k to 100k, and I wouldn't expect them to.
Any many of us are energized (no pun intended) by moving completely away from gas. So while plug-in hybrids are better than ICE cars, we don't get excited about them the same way.
Chevy is better, but not great. Who wants a hybrid? Worse acceleration, MUCH more complexity (two drivetrains), still go to gas stations, still need oil changes, still noisy, etc.
Try a $35k leaf and a $35k tesla sometime.
For Roadster I don't remember, so maybe the 5th in a row.
This was intentional and I'm just now catching on, right?
And yes, this has been Musk's plan since the Roadster.
Making cars (and batteries) in China is a statement that Tesla think their cars will be more popular in China if they can reduce the price and that will justify the cost of making the factory there.
Model 3 advertises a 325mi range, and Musk says the Y will get about 10% less than the 3.
A very small subset of people, sure. Tesla buyers also exist outside of SF.
A friend tracked his battery use on a trip from SF -> Tahoe, the climb took around 30 miles of range, which I thought was pretty reasonable. He climbs two 7200 feet passes, and was driving quite quickly.
I quickly learned my lesson to charge in the evening or after driving for a while instead of first thing in the morning :)