I like Jerry's work a lot but come to a different conclusion. My basic thesis is that we're in the deployment age of the internet/web/mobile era and there is a whole new wave of a lot lower risk and a bit less reward opportunities for companies to bring the "peace dividend" of the software areas into markets that are not winner-take-all. The upside is these businesses are much more capital efficient, can scale and potentially produce much higher returns than SMBs from previous eras. The downside is they have no collateral and are thus completely unbankable for traditional small business lending. We need a new default form of capital for entrepreneurs and we are trying to build it: https://tylertringas.com/a-new-default-funding-for-tech-comp...
pre-orders? That gives them cash to build what (pre)buyers showed they really want? It doesn’t have to be Kickstarter, per se, could be an academic grant, or a pilot project with an enterprise customer. I have seen this work well - from idea to V1 product without selling any equity. It’s a very efficient filter.
traditional VC model is great for generating scale and creating barriers to entry/competition, but few businesses warrant that kind of scale and fewer use the capital to create real barriers.
Lending is for cash flow businesses - you can have zero hard collateral (eg PPE) but if you have historical steady cash flows, you can get loans, no problem (in my experience). The problem here is few startups focus on cash generation. They are enamored with growth at all cost, aspiring to the VC model when it isn’t appropriate.
