There’s tons of work involved in getting adoption for the tech happening in the background that is disconnected from the price. Especially considering how many people are speculating with it using vague public indicators (like media hype) without much direct connection to the value it’s producing.
Not to mention the unpredictablity of it’s long term value of an entire tech is far harder to predict than it is a companies value via stock price.
I am still long term somewhat bullish on the tech but I can't see any of the current generation working beyond niche use. Its not just efficiency but also economics. They are significantly more deflationary than gold, meaning there is never any incentive to do anything but speculate on them. If they gain any utility they will "moon" again and the resulting price instability will once again drive off everyone except speculators.
The Square CEO (and coincidentally Twitter CEO), says their mobile payments app will need to integrate with the bitcoin lightning app.
(the caps was just how it copy and pasted from the original article. they are not for emphasis)
Not sure if this is one of those news sites that A/B tests different titles but it is a little different than the HN title.
It is still a mouthful though. :)
Also doesn't it make Bitcoin even more hyper-deflationary by forcing money to be locked up in LN nodes?
i haven't heard of that. if you aren't monitoring on-chain transactions the other channel party may commit an out of date state, and you may not manage to issue a justice transaction in response.
"watchtowers" are currently in development, to which this burden can be outsourced.
> doesn't it make Bitcoin even more hyper-deflationary by forcing money to be locked up in LN nodes
lightning channels do not permanently lockup bitcoin, no. the channels have a timelock based maximum age, but cooperative peers can agree to finalise and close the channel at any time.
in any case, value can circulate via the lightning network.
In practice, your money should end up feeling more locked up if it is not on LN. LN becomes the checking account to the BTC savings account.
It's designed to be deflationary, i.e. it's designed to MOOOOON and make the early speculators rich. But, like most things in cryptocurrency, that's failed miserably. We now have hyperinflation instead.
What are the expected transaction fees?
I remember Steam dropping bitcoin when transaction fees started costing more than actual games.
This drops transaction fees by a massive amount, and allows for much quicker transactions.
Edit to add: I think Lightening is a really interesting tech, and I'm really curious to see how it handles scaling out in the real world. All that said, I think it's far too early to say how effective lighting will actually be for storefronts like Steam.
The promise is that it will help, but we have to see if that promise bears out in the real world.
The typical procedure is to make the transaction, get a failure, make the transaction again, get a failure again, repeat a few dozen times until the person behind you starts making death threats, and finally give up and pay by credit card. So the transaction fee is whatever your credit card charges.
Lightning is almost completely non-functional.
I like the cash app slightly more, since it doesn't publish transactions to a friend network by default. The network effects are still in Venmo's favor, though, so I definitely carry both.