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> for each 9 of uptime you have, add about two Zeros to the budget

It's more like going from the stone age to the bronze age. You need expertise and architecture suitable for achieving high availability, these are your budget increases, they are not linear at all. But the infrastructure itself doesn't necessarily get more expensive, on the contrary, new architecture could allow you to use the cheapest stuff available on the market.

Much of Googles initial competitive advantage was a sharded architecture and understanding how to run a reliable service across unreliable nodes - mean time to detection and repair are more important than reliability of any one component, though better components can allow you to scale further - there's interesting multiplicative effects.

Most likely u need an oracle to forecast all kinds of error in real world.

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