I think the main point, as this article alludes to, is that we may end up with safe and actually fully autonomous vehicles, but they're bloody annoying to ride in. At that point nobody will be willing to pay that $1000 premium, and you'll never recoup costs.
Personally I think given the prior that we can achieve self-driving tech, there's a ~75% probability people won't want that tech.
We've seen it so many times before, companies spending $$$ on R&D of some cool new thing and people just go "meh." I don't see a compelling argument for why this won't just join the ranks of 3D-TVs, Google Glass and flying cars.
> I think the main point, as this article alludes to, is that we may end up with safe and actually fully autonomous vehicles, but they're bloody annoying to ride in. At that point nobody will be willing to pay that $1000 premium, and you'll never recoup costs.
I think you underestimate what a difference riding in back makes.
Yes, yes, when you drive, you get angry and aggressive. I do too; my observation from taking ride share (I gave away my car and now almost exclusively use the rideshare) is that almost everyone rages out from time to time when they drive.
Sitting in back with a book is such a different experience. "Wow, I used to be like that?" I mean, it seems so weird to see someone get mad about traffic when you haven't taken the wheel for a month yourself.
Edit:
To be sure, if we don't get full level-4; if you still need to be the 'safety driver' and actually pay attention, that's a different thing, and yeah, that's a whole lot less useful.
And to be clear, I am not saying that I think we are close to full level-4. I'm just saying that if we get there? it will be wonderful in ways that weren't obvious to me until I switched from driving to being driven for quite some time.
The first generations of autonomous vehicles will almost certainly still have steering wheels, so if it's too timid at a turn/merge, you could override it like the safety driver in this anecdote did. There is immense value in being able to watch a movie or sleep, and trust that the worst thing that will happen is that the car will wait too long for an opening.
Personally I think given the prior that we can achieve self-driving tech, there's a ~75% probability people won't want that tech.
We've seen it so many times before, companies spending $$$ on R&D of some cool new thing and people just go "meh." I don't see a compelling argument for why this won't just join the ranks of 3D-TVs, Google Glass and flying cars.