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I guess a lot depends on your outlook on how well organized society will hold up. It provides the platform by which specialization of experts and industrial production of your proffered items can be sustained. There's a lot of higher order effects that are not obvious when you consider just the immediate effects of scarcity, famines, wars etc. Remember that all the recent places in danger of local collapse have been propped back up by the rest of the world because the troubles have been local.

Hisory has many lessons of civilizations collapsing, you might read up on Jared Diamond's Collapse or Joseph Tainter's earlier work. A lot of these past civilizations had all the ingredients to make it, but ended up destroying themselves.




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