-before: NYC $5.1MM, Miami $4.2, difference $900k
-after: NYC $4.9MM, Miami $3.9, difference $1MM
So for some reason, you decided the NYC lifestyle is worth a $900k hit in your total income (which after tax is about $5MM), but $1MM will make you pack up and move to Miami. Really?
If you earn only capital gains, please note that your property tax rate in Miami is much higher. Sure, you'll be able to deduct more for federal tax purposes, but that's faint consolation as overall, you'll still end up paying more.
All in all, this is probably a submarine piece by the realtors in Miami hoping to get the rich guys in NYC to spend of few minutes even considering buying property there. It doesn't matter that the tax calculus does not make sense, maybe they'll like the sun ...
You've also mixed up your before and afters for NYC when you tried to copy from the chart (NYC became more expensive after the new law, Miami became less expensive). The difference before the new law was about 700k, and the difference after the new law is about 1.2m. As the article says, the difference between taxes in Miami and NYC has gotten $450,000/year worse with the new law, not $100,000 worse.
I think you're probably right about the overall impact being small, however.
If you’re wealthy enough to travel most of the year for businesss or pleasure, why wouldn’t you make your resident state Florida?
A couple months back, I flirted with moving from NYC to Las Vegas for tax reasons. I was shocked at the expense of luxury housing there, and construction costs were similarly high (I was quoted $450-$500/sqft, on par with NYC). My realtor explained to me that rich Californians were "stampeding" into Nevada and had increased the cost of all things high-end by 50-100%--basically in the span of a year! She was very bearish on the market.
It seems some measure of rich flight is playing out in California/Nevada; enough to transform segments of the housing market. It's not far-fetched to imagine the same with New York/Florida.
Keep in mind that some have unreasonable asking prices. So I don't know what you were looking at, but the market is falling in LV (my Dad has been seeing price drops over the time period he's been looking). Here is some quick data via Duck Duck Go: https://ballenvegas.com/las-vegas-real-estate-market-report/...
Florida won't be your friend if New York comes knocking.
To give this some specificity, I have multiple former colleagues who live in Connecticut and commute to New York who have had their cell phone location data subpoenaed. If you’re going to decamp from New York for tax purposes, actually decamp.
As a Miami resident, it’s clear that Miami is extremely influenced by NY and NY’ers living there to begin with. So I’m not sure if this is really news. NY’ers essentially built up what is Miami now and there is a strong sphere of influence from NY in Miami.
Miami is basically a satellite economy of NY. The big thing that Miami doesn’t have is high paying jobs. And tech in Miami is virtually nonexistent.
But wealthy folks residing in Miami don’t really need to worry about landing a decent job in the first place.