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I’m running both a 5S and 6S with latest iOS. An iPhone 8 should be good for st least five years.

The fact that the 5s got iOS 12 is more of an exception than the rule. The 5 stopped at iOS 10, and the 4s stopped at iOS 9, so the general trend should have stopped the 5s at 11.

The 5s was the first 64-bit ARM CPU in a phone, I've got my fingers crossed it might recieve iOS 13.

Aren't Apple OS updates typically tied to actual hardware constraints (vs a x-year obsolescence cycle)? With the 5 and iOS10, Apple stopped supported 32-bit hardware, right? I don't recall a time where Apple just said "that phone is too old and slow" - it's always been "that phone doesn't have [hardware architecture X]".

Point being, the cycle isn't known. The iPhone 7 could be supported for many years. Or, hardware design could change in 2019 and even the XS and XR could be obsolete.

If that was true, the 3GS, 4 and 4S should also have gotten iOS 10.

The trend isn’t linear

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