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Do you have any citations for this? If it's true and the states are actually acting on that incentive, it's an epic conspiracy. I wonder if you could look at differences in anti-vape policy between states that took a lump sum payment and ones that didn't to validate it.

June 23, 2014: "E-cigarettes could stub out tobacco bonds sooner than thought"

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The rapid growth of electronic cigarette sales poses a rising but under-appreciated risk to holders of as much as $96 billion of bonds tied to payments tobacco companies make to U.S. states from a sweeping legal settlement in 1998."


Starting to think that maybe, just maybe, finding ways to securitize everything under the sun is not such a good idea.

> Starting to think that maybe, just maybe, finding ways to securitize everything under the sun is not such a good idea.

It's weird to blame that on the security - ie, the vehicle that enabled the payment of this settlement in the first place - rather than the manipulation and outright fraud that the tobacco companies conducted for years (which is why the suit even existed).

Bonds didn't enable the payment of the settlement. The tobacco companies were going to hand over ~$8B cash every year. The securitization added a layer of complexity that capitalized on greed and, surprise surprise, looks guaranteed to blow up in these state's faces.

> Nine states — Alaska, California, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island and West Virginia — and Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico and Guam decided to get as much of those annual payments as fast as they could by mortgaging any future payments as collateral and issuing bonds. They traded their future lifetime income for cash today — at only pennies on the dollar.

> A typical bond is like an interest-only loan with a balloon payment in 30 years. But to avoid having to pay yearly interest payments, these 12 chose to issue capital appreciation bonds, deferring all interest payments and repayment for up to 50 years. Then the entire amount is due — with no plans made as to how it will be repaid. By the time these bonds come due, the legislators who approved them will be retired or dead.

> The 12 issued $22.6 billion in bonds, receiving only $573.2 million in cash. With compounded interest, they will have to repay $67.1 billion. Imagine borrowing $200,000 to buy a house today and your children having to pay back $234 million in 40 or 50 years.


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