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Chinese Company Says It Will Soon Cross $100/kWh Battery Threshold (forbes.com)
46 points by twoquestions 5 days ago | hide | past | web | favorite | 9 comments





Just to put this in perspective, for $169 you can get a 1200Wh deep cycle battery on amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Universal-UB121000-45978-100AH-Cycle-...

however, you will only get 300 cycles before the battery performance degrades to unacceptable levels.

If you wanted to use this deep cycle battery for 5 years (300X5, 1500 cycles), you would only be able to discharge 20%, meaning you would need 5 of them.

So given that you can buy a $169/1200Wh battery right now, and get 300 cycles Or you can consider it a $845 (5 X $169) / 1200Wh given the above explanation regarding cycles.

So for $900 you can get a 100 AH 12v lithium battery, which gives you near 1200Wh, $900/1200Wh to give further understanding about the title of the article. The lithium battery should give you the same amount of cycles as the 5 deep cycles. However they are relatively new in this size and unverified, they will probably perform at this level.


The 5 lead acid deep cycle's will weight approx 320 lbs, the 100 Ah Lithium Ion is 29lb...

is the technology getting better or is the cost of production getting lower?

I believe Tesla has been talking about reducing the amount of cobalt in their batteries which would be a technology way of reducing cost. As well as simply making larger more automated factories reduces the production costs.

Battery companies are going from all angles to reduce their prices.


Right, the clear indication here is on commodity futures for the raw materials which batteries will require for the next 100 years.

If you want to own the future of transport, owning cobalt and lithium mines is where to be.

So, who specifically is doing this? Thats where i would invest.

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Also, what will the overall environmental impact of the full lifecycle be for a generation of EVs in 15 years.

If tesla is producing 10k cars a week, and they will require 2 batteries in their lifetime, thats about 300K batteries per year - where they will last N years... then what becomes of them?


If you're a retail investor, it's probably very likely that the big guys have already priced this in, and all you're making might be a bet that shifts on new information.

The big guys also get new information much faster than the rest, and even have people employed who's job is to get information via non-traditional means that are not available to average investors.

For example:

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2010/08/19/129298095/with...

Using satellite images of parking lots to predict super market earnings, or using satellite images to estimate corn and wheat production.


Even before Tesla, Battery factories were already fully automated. The larger scale and specific battery usage gave them some cost advantage, along with little to no margin as it counted against Tesla Motor R&D rather than Panasonics.

I am still surprised how we managed to bring this down 50 to 60% over the past years.


Both. Scale is obviously helping prices come down with major projects for vehicle electrification in China.

The pace of LiIon research is accelerating as well. The big news of the past few years was Coulombic efficiency measurement, basically very precise ammeters that can detect the number of 'stray' charges lost in a charging cycle. The idea is that any electrons that aren't recovered are involved in some kind of unwanted reaction, and thus is related to battery degradation. This permits rapid testing of battery chemistry and manufacture.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03605...


Both.



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