It is none of these things however. The hardware is already capable. The fundamental techniques that are popular and theories are the flawed. Essentially, you need to start over as Geoffrey Hinton said. Something no one wants to put effort into doing or fund.
So, indeed AGI is here today. It's just not within the frame of the populist efforts. An capable individual with the freedom of doing deep pondering and constructions w/o any outside influence is more likely to crack this puzzle than a room of PhDs all systemically subscribed to the same fundamentally flawed approach of Optimization algorithms.
As far as the compute goes, does anyone even truly spend the time to understand it anymore in this day and age of frameworks on frameworks? I mean truly understand it? And there lies to other fundamental problem. How can one make broad statements about the computational requirements of AGI when the most they know about the underlying hardware is an AWS config file?
Swaths of the industry have shut themselves out from ever developing AGI. Sadly, they're the groups w/ the most funding and backing because they represent the same flawed mainstream ideology as every other AI group.
It will be an outsider and the core theoretical approach is already resolved.
I'm not convinced. The architecture of a computer, with its extremely fast CPU cores and its extreme bottleneck of a memory bus with a tiny cache set up in a hierarchy is radically different from the architecture of the human brain.
The brain is parallel on an unimaginably larger scale than anything we've ever built. The brain also doesn't put a wall between "storage" and "compute." I think there are tons of problems the brain solves easily with parallelism that would be bottlenecked by memory latency on a computer.
Oh come on, he says this every couple of years... Bengio made a meme about it...