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U.S. Stocks Plunge Most Since February (bloomberg.com)
68 points by devy 5 months ago | hide | past | web | favorite | 25 comments

To put this in perspective:

"Since 1928 the S&P 500 has seen 325 days w/losses of 3% or worse. That means it happens roughly 3.5x a year on average." - @awealthofcs

I don't think these losses are significant in the long term considering we're coming from all time highs.

In then last 68 years less than half of them (30) had _any_ down days of more than 3%. So those days of 3%+ losses are clustered most closely in bad years.

Six of the 20 biggest daily point losses in S&P 500 history have been this year, the same as 2008 so far. I know as the index rises, a given point loss accounts for a smaller percentage loss, but none of the top 20 were last year and only one was in 2016. It's really not looking like a good trend.

Maybe we should apply a little conditional probability instead of a basic average?

Given that we were in a bear market.

Given that we were in a bull market.

I’m sure we can come up with other conditions.

A simple average is usually meaningless, and puts nothing in perspective.

I feel similarly, but if you look at where the DJI and NASDAQ are now compared to where they were in January the year starts to look a lot more bearish. I'm not very well educated in finance though And if anyone wants to correct me or spin more nuance here I would be grateful.

Also, all time highs are scary. Nobody likes a bubble.

It's impossible for the market to increase in value without having "all time highs".

Since stocks are denominated in dollars, I like to say:

US Dollar Soars In Equity Purchasing Value

[Poll] Do you think the market will end ⇧ or ⇩ tomorrow?

My guess would be ⇧. Large, precipitous drops /tend/ to be followed by moderate rises (from what I've seen, YMMV ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)

I'd say down.

And I wouldn't recommend anyone try to time the bottom on this and dip buy: you had 10 years to get a long position if you are trying to buy and hold.

Long dated bonds are erratic now, stocks have been dumping with them, and dumping even more when they are being bid.

The Dow Jones is set to open 3035 pts or so lower[1] than today's close, so I would say the market will end down tomorrow, and next few days are going to be "choppy" to say the least...

> As of late morning, the Dow Jones industrial average futures pointed to an implied open of 335.74 points lower.

[1] Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/11/asia-markets-wall-street-sel...

I think I have no more than a 50/50 shot of calling this right but I'm going with up. But only till Friday..

Guessed wrong!

Up starting friday is my guess Never take an advice from a stranger though :)


(I agree with gizmo, but I predict a 2-day drop. Then, it's a good time to buy IMO).

Didn't they go down yesterday as well? I might be blurring days together here though :)

Depends on the stocks. Yesterday some went up, some went down.

I think I'm neutral over a 1 week timescale, short over a 1 year timescale, long over a 10 year timescale, short over a 50 year timescale.

Why short over 50 years? What would you say about 20 or 30 years, and why?

There are enough tail risks from climate change that the stock market, should it still exist, will probably enter a terminal decline on the 50 year time scale. I should add though that I'm long on 150 year scale, so there you go.

Not enough information to say in 20 or 30 years..

Why the downvotes?

I'm sure this discussion will be civil

We're doing pretty well so far =)

I upvoted this!

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