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Crypto Market Has Bottomed (According to Novogratz) (beincrypto.com)
14 points by sanefive 6 months ago | hide | past | web | favorite | 16 comments

From numbers alone?

I can see Bitcoin being stable as its used as a fiat hedge, but the top alt coin Ethereum, failed to solve the Blockchain log jam. It seems overall, apps should not run on blockchain.

These ERC20 platforms have to go to ~0 before we see the bottom.

Bitcoin isn't used as a Fiat hedge. It's used for laundering, buying drugs and other illegal activity. That's all that is keeping it alive

The professional criminals long ago switched to privacy focused coins like Monero and Zcash [0], both for movements and for ransomware/cryptojacking.

Fiat is still the largest market for money laundering [1], not Bitcoin. The amount of money described in that article is almost 50% of what Bitcoin's peak market cap was. I also think if Bitcoin was significantly better than existing methods for money laundering, we would see an increase in the proportion of identifiable illegal activity instead of a declining trend which implies the amount of money laundering (and other illegal activities) has at most remained constant [2]. That paper also reinforces the point made in [0] with regards to Monero/Zcash. It should also be noted that the paper found only ~25% of users and ~44% of transactions were involved, which while being large portions are not the majority portions. I would also hazard a guess that the majority of large scale illegal transactions would not be conducted on exchanges in amounts large enough to cause major slippage of price, which is a significant limiting factor in how quickly someone can launder their money (especially since while they don't want to significantly move the price themselves, other entities may not have such restrictions) as well as eliminating those transactions as major price movers.

Not saying no one uses Bitcoin for these things, just that it's highly unlikely those things are the primary factors in the price we see.

Personally, I think the price supports for Bitcoin are speculation, (possibly - I know one enthusiast personally who believes miners would buy up BTC whenever the price falls below break-even for mining) miners, and probably more than a few true believers.

I would also like to point out that Bitcoin, while the dominant factor in the crypto market, is not the ENTIRE cryptomarket. There are several projects that have actual unique use cases - Brave (BAT) and Enjin (ENJ) being two examples that are not explicitly targeting fiat substit, Ethereum, or Stellar. Believe it or not, there are actually people who would rather not have unelected third parties able to exercise control over their wealth and daily lives. Especially when some of those third parties engage in predatory practices and take risks that endanger the economy as a whole [3], and when those third parties are practically unavoidable.

[0] https://www.deepdotweb.com/2017/09/20/dhs-says-darknet-crimi...

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/14/us-examining-danske-bank-ove...

[2] https://www.law.ox.ac.uk/business-law-blog/blog/2018/02/sex-...

[3] https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bank-of-america-charge-...

"failed to solve the Blockchain log jam" is unfair. There are numerous architectural changes in the pipeline for the next year or two (POS; plasma; etc.), that are all designed to help scaling. Given the number and complexity of such changes, it's possible they fail, but these changes have not launched yet.

POS removes the trustless and decentralized nature of blockchain.

There have been buyers holding the $6000 level over the last couple of months, but there has not been much buying interest on the last few pops higher either. Calling a bottom at this point is way premature. It's at most a 50:50 chance at this point. If sellers come back in aggressively and drive the price through 6000, anyone who bought there is going to panic and that will drive the price a lot lower.

Are Bitcoin a security? If so, would the SEC see this promotion as violating any rules?

I'm assuming Novogratz holds Bitcoin.

>Are Bitcoin a security?

not according to the SEC.

>"Cryptocurrencies: These are replacements for sovereign currencies, replace the dollar, the euro, the yen with bitcoin," Clayton said. "That type of currency is not a security."

>A token, or a digital asset used in a fundraising process known as an initial coin offering, or ICO, are securities by Clayton's definition.


edit: disregard. I won't ever question the scientific validity of technical analysis again, and will add it to my ever-growing list of unacceptable opinions on HN.

Why the downvotes? The parent is correct: TA is junk science. In the case of bitcoin it does make for great schadenfreude though: https://i.redd.it/8f87wq7snzl11.jpg

Agreed. From the article: “Markets like to retrace to the breakout”. Nonsense.

I studied technical analysis while doing my PhD (Comp. Sci & Finance). After a lot of research, I really could not take it seriously. For me it seemed as astrology.

You should change your comment back to the original and wait for the voting brigade to stop.

No. I'm done. Fuck this site.

Crypto is by-and-large only good for illegal transactions; same as BitTorrent is only good for illegal downloads.

Anyone talking about other "applications" doesn't understand the way things currently work.

People with this correct opinion might get censored by the Inquisition but we have only been right so far...

> same as BitTorrent is only good for illegal downloads.


Number 3 will surprise you.

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