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The errors, insights and lessons of famous AI predictions (2014) [pdf] (ox.ac.uk)
16 points by lainon 6 months ago | hide | past | web | favorite | 4 comments



> In Searle’s time, the dominant AI paradigm was GOFAI (Good Old-Fashioned Artificial Intelligence.)

Russel and Norvig's book is probably the best introduction to "old fashioned" AI:

https://www.amazon.com/Artificial-Intelligence-Modern-Approa...

GOFAI may not have lead directly to true AI, but it produced a ton of useful algorithms such as A* and minimax. Although the attention has turned to machine learning algorithms (à la https://www.amazon.com/Elements-Statistical-Learning-Predict...) the hybrid of GOFAI and ML has produced some extraordinary results, such as AlphaZero:

https://deepmind.com/blog/alphago-zero-learning-scratch/


“Moore’s law seems much more counterfactually resilient: assuming that the current technological civilization endured, it’s hard to find any reliable ways of breaking the law.”

That didn’t age well.


I mean the speed of light limitations were known to physics since the 1920's so it was obvious it couldn't continue forever.


To paraphrase Stein - what can't go on forever, won't.




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