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> Wars about control of water will be centered around areas with fresh water availability. The middle east doesnt have any.

More likely, they'll be centered around points of availability in areas of relative scarcity.

There is, in fact freshwater in the Middle East, just not a lot. Which makes what is there a potential source of contention.

Fair point. Do climate models have the fidelity to predict desertification? My intuition would be that the entire middle east will be devoid of water at 2 degrees hotter.

As always, the question is 'with how much certainty'? At low enough certainty I could predict what parts of the world will get dryer or wetter on the back of an envelope, but there are a lot of unknowables like human activity that would have to be included to make a quite reliable prediction.

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