Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

“Fine tuned” doesn’t mean “highly improbable” in mathematical or physical sense, because probability is defined only as a limit value in case the number of trials is infinite. Once you have only one outcome there is simply no "improbable" probability. Check your sources if they understand that much.

“Fine tuned” claimed by some people is currently only a metaphysical claim: “IF we believe that the physical constants can take any value, then only some exact constants define the Universe with the characteristics like ours.” Note if. There’s no real evidence for that belief, that all the values are/were actually possible. We don’t know if there’s something outside of the results of our current experiments that can support such claim, but given what we exactly know, there’s also no real reason to believe that the other constants were possible.

Note: we also have absolutely zero of exact evidence that multiverses exist. So what we actually have is only this Universe of ours, with only the constants that we observe.

To paraphrase one joke, if you only saw only one sheep, looking black, through you window in your whole life, moving from left to right, the only valid mathematical and physical claim you can make is "there exists at least one sheep there, whose one side is black." Nothing more unless you make more observations. It's basic scientific literacy.

Or to paraphrase another example: you've just went to your search machine and typed "seinfeld license plate picture." You've received the image of the plate on which is "new york assman." Then you go around saying "imagine, from all combinations that I can imagine that the license plates can have, I've got exactly this one. It's so improbable." No, it isn't. Sorry to burst your bubble. Now imagine a relaxed experiment: You live in New York, go outside your door, wait for the first car to pass by. You never saw any license plate in your life, or got any information how they are issued. Then you go out and see the license plate "BGY 3891." You say again "oh look, from all the license plates in New York, if I assume they can have 7 letters and digits, how 'improbable' it is for me to see exactly BGY 3891." Again, in that experiment, there's no mathematical probability involved. You simply observed one license plate. You can invent "fine tuning" story about it, of course: imagine, if the Earth wouldn't exist, there would be no humans, there would be no cars, there would be no license plates, there would be no me making the experiment. Yes. But given all that actually exists, and that you actually went and observed one plate, it's simply the first (the only) license plate you saw.

I've also generated a number of random bytes, hex encoded, which can be observed as one big number:

4ad41f5650977f991bb1b1a12a29f1cefe1e6ffede 8bb7d71ab0199832ca60345236ca343a0e3aff02fc 8b8a6d24aef012b3b15e688f3bcd7d82a77e3f0e35 6745b1a6d4bcd1fc90ff4e3ee273cb1f0989fa140a b0a932252e9bf2ac3198b3bb7446a738d252233861 8ba380465181f544d900f8cc20b1544b6022f05bc5 266917d2ef5a8f6afe41245862b66c3c3f1874df84 c3bf6c4362455e2c4c66d08be68c1b1a0ab073619a c5626e7719c4bc75d96ebb42daee9f147fe60aae71 85a482939c62ded6e05ac9728e7edf65c97c868535 63f697a45e75d325824e4bea051c1c3781fa284d86

And wow there are 10 to 556 (1 with 556 zeroes) possible numbers that big, and I've got exactly that one! Isn't it amazing? Hint: it isn't.




You asked "Says who?"

I provided some examples.

You obviously don't agree with the argument, but not that long ago you were pretty obviously questioning whether anyone had ever even made the argument. Did you make sure to call and check for buried cables before digging the new holes to move those goalposts into?


I actually asked: ""the particular universe we observe around us appears to be staggeringly improbable"<--Says who?" Don't omit your words I quoted to pretend that I ask something else.

I questioned the use of "improbable" by anybody who knows what "improbable" in mathematical sense means and uses it in that way about the "universe we observe" giving any exact evidence. I still haven't seen such an example. I don't care about these who don't want to even understand what they talk about, or those who make claims with no actual support. My question was with the goal to point to exactly that: those who claim actually don't have any physical evidence for their claims. The wikipedia article mentions "theists," "philosophers," "theologians" etc. Some scientists also write something on the subject but not with the actual scientific support, just in their role of some of the above.

The number of random people claiming something doesn't make the claim more true. The validity of physical claims can be evaluated only based on the physical evidence, and only processed according to the mathematical rules that are valid in our Universe. Anything else is not physics.

Once in a time, there was one constant that physicists talked about as "special" (in that non-physical sense) being at that moment "exactly" 137, according to the best measurements of the moment. It was measured much more precisely since. 137.0359. Then 137.03599. Then 137.035999. Wow, isn't it something special? Maybe it's exactly 137.036? Does it have some special "meaning"? But now we know using much more precise measurements that it's 137.035999139... So it turned out to be quite unspectacular.

What is spectacular is that we have so precise measurements today: for that constant we are uncertain only for "0.23 parts per billion." And by the way, whichever computer or mobile phone you use now, the CPU in it has the basis of 99.9999999% pure silicon. That's also spectacular, it's one grain (i.e. 1 gram) of dirt in 1000 tons of silicon (at least 12 railroad cars needed)! And because it is also a result of a lot of hard work, and available to everybody including "theists" and "philosophers."




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: