So his friend is going to risk 20 years in prison just to get revenge?
This guy has already been in prison; he got caught stealing and was sent back to finish his first sentence. Not everyone is the mafia don that you see on Law & Order. This guy probably has no connections and no money. Which means he has to do his dirty work himself.
And after two years in prison, I doubt a direct ticket back is his first priority.
I disagree, not with the stats, but with the idea that the stats imply in any way that she could be at additional risk. Conventional wisdom (I'm surprised by the lack of data around this topic) is that most people re-offend because they have no real connections with people anymore and can't find reasonable employment.
Of course, she could be the lottery winner, finding the guy who was looking for a reason to become the next serial killer, but that is unlikely.
In fact, it is highly unlikely the guy will ever come across this article. He doesn't seem the type to google his own name.