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Mainstream models disagree by less than 2 K (±0.3%) over the next 100 years. That's pretty darn accurate! 2 K makes a difference to us, because we built so many cities within 100 m of sea level (1% of an ocean depth)

Predicting whether life might exist on a planet can probably tolerate ±10% temperature accuracy. There's no reason to believe that smart geophysicists can't achieve that level of accuracy.




Yes but a) they weren't originally that accurate, and b) have only just been validated against independent data (satellite measurements of sea levels).

My point, perhaps snarkily made, was that we are only now getting the hang of this, after decades of work.

Unless I'm missing something, we're not going to be approaching anything like 10% error bars for planets for which we have far less data.




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