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Perhaps relevant is that we have also been very bad at modelling the recent and short term future climate of our own damn planet!

Things are finally settling down to the point where models match independent data, e.g. the recent research into sea level changes as measured by satellite.

So now, finally, we can start making informed policy choices based on cost benefit analysis. (Actually, no, who am I kidding - Greens worldwide will keep hating on industry and capitalism, and everyone else will keep pretending AGW isn't real. But at least we could start forming rational policies if we wanted.)

Back on topic, to assume that we can make any kind of predictions about the climate of life bearing exoplanets seems like the height of arrogance given the state of the art in climate modelling.




Mainstream models disagree by less than 2 K (±0.3%) over the next 100 years. That's pretty darn accurate! 2 K makes a difference to us, because we built so many cities within 100 m of sea level (1% of an ocean depth)

Predicting whether life might exist on a planet can probably tolerate ±10% temperature accuracy. There's no reason to believe that smart geophysicists can't achieve that level of accuracy.


Yes but a) they weren't originally that accurate, and b) have only just been validated against independent data (satellite measurements of sea levels).

My point, perhaps snarkily made, was that we are only now getting the hang of this, after decades of work.

Unless I'm missing something, we're not going to be approaching anything like 10% error bars for planets for which we have far less data.




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