Additionally, this sentiment is contrary to what drives innovation. Nickpp touched on this with his AltaVista comment, but giving up this early in the game is not only stupid but is not going to happen: The market is too young and too rich to not explore.
Facebook may be a behemoth today as Yahoo was before Google. But Google innovated the shit out of one niche part of what Yahoo was doing and cornered the market, later taking over most of the parts that Yahoo sacrificed search to be good at. In the same vein, I have no doubt that there is going to be a replacement for Facebook -- it might not be a social playground or an explicit network, it could be an online reputation or identity platform, it could be a standardization of personal and social data -- but Facebook, like all things, will fade, change and eventually be considered antiquated.
Facebook started by billing itself as a "social utility." Focus on the latter part while admitting the former, and you, too, can build a successful business.
While your at it, stop making operating systems, Microsoft won.
Facebook's open graph actually makes it much more likely there will be parallel networks to Facebook that could eventually become primary.
For instance, if Google had Facebook Connect as a login method, they could quickly assemble the entire social graph and potentially beat Facebook.
That's likely why Facebook is in a tiff with Ping - Apple has the capability of replacing Facebook some day.
iPhone kills other phones now, but in 10 years an open alternative will do better. Facebook kills other social networks now, but in 10 years an open alternative will do better.
Wait, really? Last I heard Android phones were way outselling iPhones. It won't take 10 years for an open alternative to iPhone to take over, it's already happening and will be fully complete and obvious in probably 1 year or less.
Eben Moglen, http://www.softwarefreedom.org/news/2010/feb/01/freedom-clou...
I think without those personal servers, Diaspora won't take off. I hope they intend to sell such a thing. And when they do, Facebook won't fall alone.
FB has poor architecture, it's a dinosaur and bulky,
the network isn't real http://www.hrabaconsulting.com/blog/2010/06/21/hidden-stream...
people don't want to interact with brands... the narcissism prevents community. It's about the "ME", when it's really about all the other nodes in the network.
With 1000 friends I do market research all the time.. no one likes it, it's broken for most everyone in some way at some point, they've burnt their bridges endlessly... and the business model of saying
We are #1, because we are #1 is ridiculous.
Facebook has lost it's "plot" in the story of social networking. They are doing it wrong, and people will laugh at it deeper and harder than myspace ever got. http://www.geeksaresexy.net/2010/09/04/have-we-lost-the-plot...
It's going to die, for sure.
But now that I see your update... well okay then. I won't.
quick clarification in response to feedback. I'm not saying "don't compete with Facebook", I'm saying "don't build something new where I have to enter a new list of my acquaintances."
The other thing is: social networks come and go, I know Facebook is different.... just like anybody else :D
Facebook is nowhere in Japan or Korea, the two most lucrative East Asian markets.
Their Venn intersection is very slight.
Companies like Facebook get displaced regularly in this industry. If anything, the network on Facebook (boy remember when Classmates was the place to be?) becomes as much liability baggage as an asset.