I recommend Kinesis. I was in this same position a nearly couple years ago and Kafka is seriously complicated to manage and run. Kinesis is super simple, 100% managed, and has about the same semantics as Kafka. Also the AWS ecosystem around Kinesis (lambda triggers, firehose, etc) is awesome.
The number of consumers is also important. Kinesis is optimized (and priced) for the many producers / few consumers scenario. If you have many consumers, Kinesis gets expensive quickly.
