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The Bear Case for Crypto (prestonbyrne.com)
51 points by kuldeepkap 5 months ago | hide | past | web | favorite | 15 comments



I hear cryptocurrency fans defend taking the entire name "crypto" for their hobby because "it's not confusing in context". Here's a headline where it's confusing in context. The business case he leads with is even about cryptography.

Crypto means cryptography. With any luck, it will still mean cryptography after this speculative currency bubble bursts.


Many nephologists are still upset with cloud (computing)


They are distant enough that it's not confusing.


I'm sorry to tell you that it's already finance jargon.


I clicked on this expecting an article about cryptography lol


Great article. I agree with almost all of it.

Although I think all this highlights the massive unmet need for high risk investment vehicles. The stock market has become huge, slow moving and boring, where the already-rich make slow gains on top of their existing fortunes. The only companies that bother to IPO anymore are basically pump and dump crap (blue apron, snapchat). Private equity and VCs are snatching all the action for themselves. Why the hell can't I invest in uber? I would take less equity and provide more capital than all their current investors.

The ethereum network now provides everything we need to offer and trade equity - etherdelta has shown that decentralized exchanges based on the ethereum network work. So this really can't be stopped now. It may not occur in USA or China's jurisdiction, but its going to keep happening.


> It may not occur in USA or China's jurisdiction, but its going to keep happening.

Where will it keep happening?


ICO's will continue to originate from places with relaxed regulatory regimes - Switzerland, the Cayman islands. And people in countries where this type of capital raising is not permitted will find ways around it. KYC is very easy to skip around when the only real contact required is sending ether from one address to another.

I think permissionless offering and trading of securities is the killer app for ethereum.


So in that case only capital from the elite can flow into cryptocurrencies, but not be used by consumers for transactions?

Edit: Wouldn't the lack of general consumer transactions ruin the economic viability of most tokens? If so, then there is definitely a case for a bear market.


Wouldn't the lack of general consumer transactions ruin the economic viability of most tokens?

Yes.


>Wouldn't the lack of general consumer transactions ruin the economic viability of most tokens? If so, then there is definitely a case for a bear market.

That argument could apply to many high end and luxury goods, yet there are plenty of companies existing in that sector.


it's like the internet. it can't be cointained (pun intended)


Cryptocurrency minted through these ICO's from a fundamental case represents quantifiable ownership of a network. If many people are involved then the network will continue value.

I always like to relate it to many of these tech networks like twitter which will never make a profit. The twitter network itself is extremely valuable, twitter the company is fundamentally not.

These networks will continue to be supported by their users, and that is how a cryptocurrency derives it's fundamental value.


HN is always conservative with blockchain. It surprises me because yes this is the tech industry but something radical is considered alien.


mmm it's nice to get multiple perspectives, especially when your investing in internet money ;)




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