The same policy has occurred in Syria. We need to encourage dictators to leave office, not indicate that they will be tried and imprisoned.
This isn't a humanitarian argument, it is game theory. But it will save lives and reduce conflicts. The outcome is superior. I'll take a horrible person escaping justice over thousands of human casualties any day.
Easier said than done. At the core of a Dictator's dictatorship is sheer brutality and unimaginable cruelty. They rule using Fear.
What dictator in recent history (last 100 years) has willingly stepped down?
Doesn't sound like he gave it up, just re-branded it to keep with the times. Like my father used to say "Death alone can remove them."
1. Israel threatened to use them in the opening days of 1973 war: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/06/opinion/the-last-nuclear-m...
2. Pakistan threatened to use them in 1986-87 during operation brasstacks: http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1993/03/29/on-the-nuclear-...
3. North Korea today.
And, of course, the one time it actually happened.
and they didn't forget. they just internalize what that supposed rational actor would count on: that by wining, you get to be the good guy in history's eye.
Except, you know, when we accidentally blow up the entire world:
Stanislav Petrov: The man who may have saved the world
Thank you Vasili Arkhipov, the man who stopped nuclear war
This is perhaps the most inanely dumb thing I've ever read. I am sorry. I need to remove my veneer of politeness. It will probably be fine with North Korea...but NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION is unquestionably, unquestionably bad. The chance for irrational behavior or mistakes or bad actors obtaining weapons or nation states losing control of events....
good god man. go douse your face with cold water. you need to get your head on right.
There is a difference between something being rational in the context of one nation's foreign policy...and "GOOD"
Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances
According to the memorandum, Russia, the U.S., and the UK confirmed, in recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and in effect abandoning its nuclear arsenal to Russia, that they would:
1. Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty and the existing borders.
2. Refrain from the threat or use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
3. Refrain from using economic pressure on Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine in order to influence its politics.
4. Seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, "if Belarus/Kazakhstan/Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
5. Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
6. Consult with one another if questions arise regarding these commitments.
the more sane interpretation is that they should help them against the party gone rogue on the treaty. otherwise all their other treaties will be assumed to be void by other nations. which is what is happening, and every state in those areas are already siding up with either russia or china, who they fell have more skin in the game to uphold their word later on. dependable terms are better than good terms on those things.
either they help uphold the sovereignty over russia actions, or return the nukes. it's also basic reading.
your flawed logic is thinking that two other parties can benefit fully from a contract where one of the parties failed to uphold the agreements.
option C, not doing anything, is equivalent to stealing.
There are many non native English writers on HN, and I could see how some could write "the Ukraine". Obviously it's grammatically incorrect, but posting a comment just to point out a single grammatical fault/typo is typically not seen on HN.
> "The Ukraine is the way the Russians referred to that part of the country during Soviet times … Now that it is a country, a nation, and a recognized state, it is just Ukraine."
To refer to Ukraine as part of a larger whole, that larger whole is implied to be Russia.
The idea that the US was obligated to defend Ukraine against Russia is a common one, but as far as I can tell traces back to a misunderstanding of what that memorandum actually says.
Meta: I noticed my original reply above got downvoted. I wonder why. I just stated facts, with no real tone of any kind that I can tell.
The problem with Libya and Iraq (as well as Afghanistan!) is that there never has been a coherent post-war plan. Which means: what is to be done after the troops are finished?
There has been no plan about
- how to disarm the various militias enlisted to fight
- how to transition countries to democracy without kleptocrats and other opportunists abusing and hijacking the system
- how to actually rebuild all the destroyed infrastructure (roads, bridges, water, electricity, communication)
- how to actually unite and pacify the various ethnic/religious communities and prevent them from fighting each other: this is what fucked up former Yugoslavia, and now Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan, and will likely drag out the Syria conflict.
That is exactly what dictators do! Not perfectly, but a lot better than what has happened in the countries you've noted where the dictators were ousted or attempted to be ousted. So, I'd disagree that it should be a global interest to crush dictators. So far, this has caused much greater harm than good.
Dictators usually enrich themselves and defraud incoming money (and food aid) by pocketing it in their personal or their families' coffers, also most dictators resort to brutal violence to maintain their rule; as a result people will attempt to flee these countries. And this causes harm - first of all for the fleeing people who are often enough abused as slaves or prostitutes, but also by funding criminal networks (e.g. the Mafia, which has discovered that people-smuggling and involvement in refugee operations is way more profitable and riskless than drug trading).
Also, when we as the Western world fail to provide basic human rights to any person on this planet, when we fail to even TRY and instead make "deals" with those violating human rights, what are the human rights then worth?
I agree that the last few ousted dictators went badly, but more because the Western countries failed to provide an exit strategy, not because they attempted to oust the dictators.
The first South Korean leader, propped up by America, wasn't your average local warlord: Rhee Syngman was a prominent figure in the independence movement, and had a PhD in International Politics from Princeton.
He went on to kill some 200 thousand Koreans for being communist, terrorized the country for twelve years, and finally ousted by Koreans and fled to Hawaii, where he died later. His reign is remembered by corruption, blanket pardon to national traitors, and mass execution of people accused of being communists.
If you think you "only" need an exit strategy to liberate a country from bad dictators, you don't understand how much luck you need.
I'm German. Germany is only at it's current position as European power house and "leader of the free world" (at least many people name Angela Merkel als such, since Trump became president) due to the incredible efforts of the US, UK and France (and to a lesser extent the Soviets) after WW2. And Germany was bombed to shreds basically.
You don't need "luck" to succeed. You need political will, power and the ability to look further in the future than $time_until_next_election. Not very many politicians (no matter if in the US or in the EU) seem to possess these traits any more.
> He went on to kill some 200 thousand Koreans for being communist
Then, he IS a typical result of US intervention: everyone who is against "communists" is good.
Please stop with this nonsense, we in europe get to see the mess piling up in waves of refugees and terrorism. Your freedom is chaos, your peace is war, your truths are lies. Enough, i rather equip every dictator myself with nukes, if it makes this delusional madness end.
As a species, we have evolved institutions such as the UN to effectively convey and act upon those global interests in a civilised manner. This happened after humanity suffered the horrors of two world wars. If anyone, anywhere decides to wage a war supposedly to guard global interests, they should at least get a global consensus, no? That democracy that you speak of.
Because other wise self defence would be justified, honourable even. The problem with Iraq and Libya isn't what you described post-war, it is that they got invaded in the first place. A perfectly good country would turn into Iraq and Libya if you invaded and dismantled its government.
The Russians will continue to veto anything that might endanger their claim to Crimea or their naval base in Syria. The Chinese will continue to veto against anything that might impact North Korea (due to their land border), and also likely against anything that might disrupt their infrastructure and other investments in Africa. The US will veto anything that endangers whatever business interests Trump has or what could endanger Israel (and, IMHO, rightly so).
Also, there are no consequences for failing to adhere with UN resolutions, as the UN does not have an independent standing military force, so as long as you as violating country have one supporter in the SC (it usually is either US, China or Russia), you don't have to fear anything.
What's worse is that the UN is not at all democratic. The representatives are not elected democratically, they are not bound to the will of the people, and there is no proportional voting according to population size.
P.S. I took a quick glance at their programming list, and I'm guessing it was this interview. I was listening a bit out of one ear while about other stuff:
Legislating Peace And Reform In Ukraine
July 24, 2017
To discuss how Ukraine is inspired by Western Europe to reform, and how the war in Eastern Ukraine is holding, Worldview joined by Ostap Kryvdyk, a senior foreign policy advisor to the Speaker of Ukraine’s parliament.