There is a better version of the story here:
As mainstream finance invests in cryptocurrency assets and as countries take steps toward legalising Bitcoin as a payment system (as Japan did in April 2017), it is important to understand how susceptible cryptocurrency markets are to manipulation. We encourage the nascent cryptocurrency industry to work with regulators and researchers to share anonymised transaction data so that more confidence can be placed in the veracity of exchange rates.
And they call for more study to confirm or deny their finding. So far so good.
It's people that might overact in a way or another, this article is just a piece of data.
That after being "hacked" and losing the coins, they kept operating even though they knew they couldn't payout everyone. They tried to make up the losses by manipulating the market against their users.
Sure, another market could try to pull the same stunt, but do they even have the same scale nowadays? There are many more markets than at the time of MtGox.
I see this article as an additional proof that the spike back then was caused in large part by the ponzi scheme MtGox was.
(Having said that, there were also other good news back then that helped the price - like the hearing in US Senate regarding crypto, that went very well)
Due to the fact they have money, financial systems are under constant threat of theft and fraud.
Kind of like open source systems end up safer long term, because every single day people are trying to find bugs in their source codes.
The visualization code (R) is available here:
In recent work, we show that the first time Bitcoin reached an exchange rate of more than $1,000, the meteoric rise was driven by fraud (Gandal et al. 2017). We leverage a unique and very detailed dataset to examine suspicious trading activity that occurred over a ten-month period in 2013 on Mt. Gox, the leading Bitcoin currency exchange at the time. We first quantify the extent of the suspicious/fraudulent trading activity and show that it constitutes a large fraction of trading on the days the activity occurred. We then show how this trading activity affected the exchange rates at Mt. Gox and other leading currency exchanges [at the time].
Gox started as a trading platform in 2010 by McCaleb. He sold this to Mark in 2011. It is rumored that Mark was using customers BTC to expand Gox or/and it was already sold to Mark missing 80,000 BTC. When the price started to go up, Gox was forced to create the willy bot to try and buy back (at a higher price) the bitcoins they missing as they were running a technical fractional reserve). The willy bot drove the price up because it was always buying and in turn defeated its own purpose as it ended up bankrupting MxGot by driving the price so high that they could never hope to recover the missing btc. I wonder if they had not created the bot if they could have made GoT solvant again over a longer time frame.
This sort of thing is still happening, Poloneix is rumored to be inside trading, There was a DDOS attack a few days ago which caused price drops and it is rumored the Dossers were shorting the currencys on the exchanges. One of the exchanges had such little liquidity that a whale was able to dump eth yesterday causing a massive price drop on one exchange (which I am prety sure they then used to buy up cheap coins but you never know)
Anyone activity trading in Cryptoland is at the mercy of these whales, they are mainpulating price, daily pump and dumps on alts and no regulartion
That said, I cannot stop watching it all, i just hlod coins I like the technical merit of
Some light reading
History of Gox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mt._Gox
Information on McCaleb selling to Mark talk of missing 80k http://www.thedailybeast.com/behind-the-biggest-bitcoin-heis...
Links on Willybot http://www.coindesk.com/bot-named-willy-did-mt-goxs-automate...
Poloneix insider https://coinidol.com/suspicion-of-insider-trading-at-polonie...
Most of these are now prohibited which I'm sure doesn't eliminate them but it makes them much less common - short squeezes in particular are now very very rare. BTC markets obviously won't have any restrictions.
Amazon link for anyone interested in the book (make sure you get the annotated edition): https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/0470481595/
I'm not saying what is described in this article is wrong, but we should certainly take this obsessional need for explanation into account when reading such interpretations and consider that growth patterns are also something that could be at play, disregarding of any single individual intervention (we're dealing with statistic level high numbers, after all).
It can't be considered a real scientific theory. It doesn't try to either (although, in all fairness, it was indeed the initial intention of Elliott, but he was not a scientist). Saying that it's not a theory is quite weird. Do you mean it's fact, then?
> They have no predictive power
Yes, it's not enough by itself, it's not a formula that you can apply and get rich. This is something people expect from EWT, and this expectation is the error. Like any technical analysis tool, people can loosely "use" it to see what they want to see. Their fault.
> It's just more after-the-fact rationalizations and attempts by humans to find meaningful patterns in chaos
While it's true that it's way easier to count correctly waves after they happened, it still provides a framework that allows for more successful trading with it than without it if people don't stop at the first interpretation they think they see and instead build strategies based all the interpretations they can find.
I'm always surprised how people easily reject EWT despite all its success, often based on a single failure or on the fact that it wasn't successful for them when they tried it without applying due rigor. My bet here is that people are scared it might be a clue of some yet to be discovered natural law, because it would have huge implications regarding determinism, at least for big enough social groups. People want to be free, badly.
EDIT : btw, saying that trying to see patterns in chaos is unscientific is quite funny : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory
Bitcoin seems the perfect market for someone with deep pockets to manipulate.
I didn't think anyone was actually doing it just a lot of noise generated by journalists who should have known better.
Edit: did we see anywhere on Kos allowing you to pay by BTC.... no!