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If I see a coin come up heads twenty times in a row, I'm going to use the power of induction to predict that the coin is biased towards heads. Induction tells me that, the more something has happened in the past, it's more likely to continue to do so in the future. I trust induction because induction has worked for me before.

Somewhere out there in mind-space is someone who believes in anti-induction: each coin flip of heads convinces him that the coin is biased toward tails. Anti-induction tells him that, the more something has happened in the past, the less likely it is to do so in the future. If asked why he trusts anti-induction, he exclaims: "Because it's never worked before!"

That said, just because these two minds are possible in mind-space, doesn't mean that they're equally likely to form naturally in any given physical universe. In fact, to our intuition, one of the two seems particularly unlikely...

Credit to http://lesswrong.com/lw/t9/no_license_to_be_human/




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