If you want to know the probability it will fail, just take 1 - probability_success = 1 - 1/e.
Ultimately, it's hard to give a math-free explanation for something that comes out straight from math. If you break down an explanation into small enough steps, they should be comprehensible for anyone even if they have to take some steps on faith.
 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14040434
cperciva 3548 days ago [-]
That is my startup idea. I don't want to take this
thread even more off-topic (if that's even possible),
but please feel free to contact me at the address in
that first post to explain why you think it is a bad
dhouston 3548 days ago [-]
we're in a similar space -- http://www.getdropbox.com
(and part of the yc summer 07 program) basically,
sync and backup done right (but for windows and os
x). i had the same frustrations as you with existing
solutions. let me know if it's something you're
interested in, or if you want to chat about it
drew (at getdropbox.com)
I think confusingly worded, as n increases the reliability of each node has to increase correspondingly to get the convergence. I'm not sure what real system this reflects, but I suppose it's an indication of at what point the problems of scale will bite (if you know your rough failure rate).