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This makes almost zero sense, and it's likely that there will be zero explanation as to why any of this is necessary.

If there's a threat this only introduces a minor inconvenience to those looking to carry out an attack. Is getting a connecting flight in some country like Germany going to be hard?

This is probably a first step towards a ban on all flights for that exact reason.

... which would increase risk, because battery fires are worse in checked bags than in the main cabin/overheads.

Considering zero fires in carry-on have caused plane crashes, but a non-zero number in cargo have, yeah, basically this makes it way worse.

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