My current best option is hoping that a) the Winklevoss ETF gets approved and b) an option chain develops for it, in which case I will buy puts consistent with my belief that the long-term FMV for the ETF's assets is zero. (Exchange-traded options in the US are guaranteed by the Options Clearinghouse Corporation, which is why -- absent global calamity -- you can be very certain that e.g. puts on Google are worth money even if Google goes out of business or the people who sold you the puts are insolvent when their broker hands them an exercise notice.)
There is theoretically a DRW subsidiary which does over-the-counter options but they have a $25k minimum trade size. It would also require a lot of due diligence for me with regards to counterparty risk; it's not clear whether their options would reliably compel performance or that they would be in a position to backstop the failure of their clients in the event of total systemic collapse of the Bitcoin markets. It's also not clear to what extent that DRW would backstop them if they were insufficiently capitalized. (For an illustration of why this matters, read The Big Short, for the amount of heartburn that various folks betting against the housing market went through when it became obvious that they were entirely right on the merits but that some of their counterparties were almost certainly going to go bankrupt due to how wrong they had been about the housing market.)
(I've spent way too much time thinking about this, since "Bitcoin will eventually fail catastrophically" is the biggest answer to "A belief about the future state of the world which I hold strongly after reflection and which doesn't match the beliefs of some of the smartest people I know", which sets off my "Either I'm wrong or I should be betting against them" antennae.)
If it makes you feel better, Id bet on the future of cryptocurrencies, but against bitcoin in particular.
The bitcoin network decided to strip the VM of features that made it valuable in the future (eg, ability to make transaction claiming represent the solution to a computation) in favor of safety and simplicity now. I don't believe the behavior of the network in resolving blocksize issues indicates the kind of political will needed to fix that.
So my bet is that the next iteration (or two or three) on the ideas behind Etherium will eat their lunch. Because having tokens to reward contract execution or a computation has a fundamental longterm value (and is similar to how real currencies function, in that executing a contract or doing a computation earns you the ability to have that done for you). I don't believe that just securing the ledger has long term potential.
My current best option is hoping that a) the Winklevoss ETF gets approved and b) an option chain develops for it, in which case I will buy puts consistent with my belief that the long-term FMV for the ETF's assets is zero. (Exchange-traded options in the US are guaranteed by the Options Clearinghouse Corporation, which is why -- absent global calamity -- you can be very certain that e.g. puts on Google are worth money even if Google goes out of business or the people who sold you the puts are insolvent when their broker hands them an exercise notice.)
There is theoretically a DRW subsidiary which does over-the-counter options but they have a $25k minimum trade size. It would also require a lot of due diligence for me with regards to counterparty risk; it's not clear whether their options would reliably compel performance or that they would be in a position to backstop the failure of their clients in the event of total systemic collapse of the Bitcoin markets. It's also not clear to what extent that DRW would backstop them if they were insufficiently capitalized. (For an illustration of why this matters, read The Big Short, for the amount of heartburn that various folks betting against the housing market went through when it became obvious that they were entirely right on the merits but that some of their counterparties were almost certainly going to go bankrupt due to how wrong they had been about the housing market.)
(I've spent way too much time thinking about this, since "Bitcoin will eventually fail catastrophically" is the biggest answer to "A belief about the future state of the world which I hold strongly after reflection and which doesn't match the beliefs of some of the smartest people I know", which sets off my "Either I'm wrong or I should be betting against them" antennae.)