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Okay, maybe "sure winner" was putting it on the edge, but 70% chance of winning is still far from being decided by what is hidden in the margin error.



I don't think you clearly understand what 70% means. If you call 70% and it doesn't go the other way three times out of ten, you were poorly calibrated.

A lot of people seem to have read 70% as "no worries", which is simply wishful thinking, and now are blaming Nate Silver for being "wrong".

If your doctor told you you have a 70% chance of surviving the week, you probably wouldn't call that a "sure thing".


Basically Trump had to roll a die and get 5 or 6.




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