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What a Difference 2 Percentage Points Make (fivethirtyeight.com)
8 points by pron on Nov 10, 2016 | hide | past | favorite | 7 comments



While it is an interesting point, it is a weak excuse for their poor election forecast, which right up till the end[1] had Clinton as a sure winner.

Now, the difference was in the margin ...

[1] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/


71.4% is not "a sure winner".


Okay, maybe "sure winner" was putting it on the edge, but 70% chance of winning is still far from being decided by what is hidden in the margin error.


I don't think you clearly understand what 70% means. If you call 70% and it doesn't go the other way three times out of ten, you were poorly calibrated.

A lot of people seem to have read 70% as "no worries", which is simply wishful thinking, and now are blaming Nate Silver for being "wrong".

If your doctor told you you have a 70% chance of surviving the week, you probably wouldn't call that a "sure thing".


Basically Trump had to roll a die and get 5 or 6.


Amazing when you think about it, such a dramatic change in outcome from just 1 in a hundred persons voting differently. Same would have been the case with UK's tragic Brexit vote.


So, we all finally stop listening to this guy now, right?




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