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"Including total collapses of civilisations."

It seems to be an inherent thing of civilizations to collapse.

The Collapse of Complex Societies https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Complex-Societies-Studies-Ar...

The collapse of our society seem to be inevitable. You don't have to believe is but I don't think we can beat mathematics in the long term:

"There is No Steady State Economy (except at a very basic level)" http://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/02/21/there-is-no-steady-stat...

Limits to Growth–At our doorstep, but not recognized http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-02-12/limits-to-growt...

Wealth And Energy Consumption Are Inseparable http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-...

Galactic-Scale Energy http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/07/galactic-scale-e...

Quote: "But let’s not overlook the key point: continued growth in energy use becomes physically impossible within conceivable timeframes."




You might be right that our civilization is going to collapse eventually. However, in many of the advanced economies, we have had gdp growth has been separated from energy consumption for several decades.

I am more worried about the effects of advance technologies, including it getting in the hands of people like ISIS who want to take down Western Civilization.


"However, in many of the advanced economies, we have had gdp growth has been separated from energy consumption for several decades."

Do we?

"In recent years, a large share of the world’s manufacturing has been moved to developing countries. This shift gives the illusion that the developed countries can get along with less energy to produce their GDP. This is not really the case. The developed countries find themselves with a need for a large amount of imported goods. Their heavily services-oriented economies tend to grow slowly. This is because, with little energy use, it is difficult for these economies to make productivity gains." https://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/10/11/why-energy-prices-are-...


Plus the current model is really fragile. Come up with a way to disrupt 4-5 pacific ports at the right time and the world would plunge into depression due to the supply chain disruption.


"I am more worried about the effects of advance technologies, including it getting in the hands of people like ISIS who want to take down Western Civilization."

This is true and this may be another nail in the coffin.

"The threshold necessary for small groups to conduct global warfare has finally been breached, and we are only starting to feel its effects. Over time, in as little as perhaps twenty years and as the leverage of technology increases, this threshold will finally reach its culmination -- with the ability of one man to declare war on the world and win." John Robb


Here's a paper published just last week titled "Is Decoupling GDP Growth from Environmental Impact Possible?" (Their answer is "no.")

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/asset?id=10.1371/jo...




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