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Wondering what HN thinks about VR. Will it grow enough to be a big enough market ? Till now it seems to be less than what it was hyped to be.



China is and will continue to be the largest consumer VR market for the near term (1-2 yrs). By 2018, will likely have ~4M HTC Vives live in cyber cafes, arcades and malls, and ~10M stand alone and mobile VR headsets across tier 1 cities. The rough math is about a $8B high end hardware market, $2B mid to low end mobile VR hardware market, and $2-$3B in software services and game revenues.

Almost all of the high quality, AAA games and apps will be produced by US/European studios for this period, for consumption largely by Chinese consumers.

(edited to answer your original question more directly)


I went to one of the VR arcades in Hong Kong, extremely cheap to play. They were a gaming cafe that introduced a couple Vives. Currently, from what I can tell having just toured, there are virtually no Vive arcades in mainland China. I tried those bad VR setups though (those lame 9D experiences), such poor latency. VR hasn't quite hit the mainstream hype yet.


Last month I saw a machine similar to this [1] at a trade show in Guangzhou, I asked some kids after they finished playing, they all loved it very much.

[1] https://detail.1688.com/pic/536274760161.html?spm=0.0.0.0.J0...


I'm pretty sure that vr headset is the HTC Vive. Check it out: https://www.google.com/search?q=htc+vr&espv=2&biw=1920&bih=9...


You are right, HTC Vive is actually mentioned in their product detail page.

The listed price is 68000 RMB, about 10K USD. I guess this includes the entire headset, a high-end computer, and the platform itself. No idea how big the margin would be. Might be good at this early stage.


Shouldn't Japan be a great market? People get familiarized with the PS VR and they have a thriving arcade culture.


People sometimes make the comparison to 3D TV, but I don't recall anyone actually wanting 3D TV other than gear geeks who buy everything to fill the existential void in their souls. Also, I don't recall demos of 3D TV making converts out of people. It was neat, but once you saw it, you figured out it wasn't going to fundamentally change how media works.

VR on the other hand: if someone hasn't already been waiting for it for decades, as soon as they yet Fruit Ninja in the Vive, they immediately demand to have it in their homes. I've been working in the VR space for almost two years now and it was just a month ago when my wife got to try Fruit Ninja that she finally understood what I've been working on. "We need this in the house" she said. "We don't have the room" I replied. Which is why my company is doing a pop-up arcade here in DC until the end of October (http://notiontheory.com/notionvr).


The first consumer devices came out and they are very expensive, require a well equipped desktop, the displays are still not that great, the availability is still low and there is not a lot of software for them. Basically everything you'd expect from the first generation. VR badly needs a killer app.


I wouldn't say "very expensive". It's about $2000 all in. Most people can scrape that sort of money together if they really want. It's not like 5 years ago, when it would have cost you as much as a small car to get just a headset. That's "very expensive". Quit going out to eat and drink every weekend for half the year? Not very expensive.

And again, I wouldn't say they are "not that great". They aren't 20/20 vision great, sure, but there is still a lot you can do and it's still possible to hit "presence".

I spend a lot of time exercising with Fruit Ninja and Space Pirate Trainer. I've spent hours at a time in Tilt Brush and Fantastic Contraption. Job Simulator has some bugs, but the gameplay is fantastic and it's not just a one-and-done demo. Jon Favreau's Gnomes & Goblins is cutting edge story telling that is fitting the VR medium explicit, it's incredible. I think your waiting for some time of lots of good content that is already here.

If you fancy yourself an "innovator", you should be getting in now. You need the lead time over consumers to get a handle on how different UX design is in VR.




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